Australian residential property prices forecast to rise up to 6 percent in 2010

As prospective home buyers look for the best time to jump into the market, many of the nation's top housing analysts have forecast modest residential price growth of about five or six per cent in 2010.

Some of Australia's leading economists believe demand for homes will stay strong as investors and upgraders pick up the slack from first home buyers.

But a small group of doomsayers is convinced a combination of rising interest rates, the winding up of the first home owners grant boost and over-inflated prices could lay the foundations for a crash.

Happily, the nation is emerging from the global financial crisis with strong population growth, the lowest interest rates in decades and a rosier jobs outlook.

Most economists, industry heads and real estate agents see the sun continuing to shine on residential property next year.

BIS Shrapnel senior project manager of residential property Angie Zigomanis predicts steady growth of about five to six percent in established residential property next year.

"I'd expect you'd see steady low-to-mid single digit growth next year," Mr Zigomanis told AAP.

"Over the next two or three years I think you'll find interest rates will keep slowly edging upwards and it'll keep a lid on the massive double digit price growth we were seeing previously."

Annual established house prices in Australia grew 6.2 per cent to September 2009, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data show.

"If you look at most markets, prices declined last year and while people are talking about booms and everything else, most of what it did was really put prices back to where they were 12 to 18 months ago," Mr Zigomanis said.

First home buyers would not be excluded from the market until the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by another one or two per cent, he said.

Investor demand and upgrader's demand picked up in the last few months of 2009 and would continue well into next year.

As city rents increased due to low vacancy rates, more first home buyers in the 25 to 35 year age group would be encouraged into the market.

Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said Australia would experience significant 20 to 25 per cent growth in new housing stock through to mid 2011.

He also supports predictions of about five to six per cent growth in established homes next year.

"With prices, we'll probably continue to get a little bit more growth over the next six to 12 months but probably not at the rate that we've seen over the last six months which has been driven a lot by the first home-owner base," he said.

Mum and dad investors, who tended to look at the same type of investment housing stock as first home buyers, were beginning to step in to fill the gap.



A shortage of housing, low interest rates and the first home buyer's grant had helped support prices, he said.

But University of Western Sydney Associate Professor of economics and finance Steve Keen said the rates and grants combination had already helped cause a housing boom in 2009.

"The fact that rates are rising as we enter 2010, combined with the ending of the boost and the winding back of government stimulus packages, means that rising interest rates are likely to end the (housing) bubble that began in 2009," Mr Keen said.

The implications would be "substantially negative" for all properties, not just those valued under $500,000.

"I'd expect a five per cent or so fall (in residential house prices), probably returning to somewhere between the current peak and the previous one in September 2008."

Meanwhile Commonwealth Bank economist James McIntyre cites wages growth as a key part of the equation, while predicting significant skills shortages emerging within 12 to 18 months.

He said house prices would grow in the "mid single digits" next year, but those increases depended on how the build up of wages translated to other sectors of the economy.

"If the whole economy catches fire with a strong growth in wages, then that will really be supportive of a continued strong growth in house prices."

He dismissed suggestions the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had waited too long to increase interest rates and said there was a very low chance of house prices falling.

It would take a "significant global shock" and an unprecedented surge in building approvals of between 200,000 and 250,000 homes to see significant weakness in house prices, he said.

Ray White Real Estate chairman Brian White believes Australia has avoided a dramatic downturn in house prices.

"All of us seem to have forgotten the anguish of the first four or five months of the year and we're trying to understand just how on earth the year finished so strongly," Mr White, who heads the nation's largest group of real estate agencies, said.

He also forecast growth of about five per cent in 2010 and said it had become a vendor's market.

"Now we're going into the new year with a number of interest rate increases occurring but with quite strong growth."

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Australian housing supply and demand simplified

There was some very interesting commentary this week on the state of the property market. Firstly, Ric Battellino the Deputy Governer of the Reserve Bank gave a speech on myriad of issues including dwelling supply at the national Housing Supply Conference in Melbourne this week.

His comments were in line with the overwhelming consensus that Australia hasn’t built enough dwellings. However, Ric’s analysis suggests that this is not due to a cutback in dwelling investment, dwelling investment continues to increase. He gives four reasons:

First, Australians are on average spending a lot more on each new dwelling. Real expenditure on each new dwelling built is now 60 per cent higher than it was around 15 years ago.
Clearly we can all agree to this, the cost of residential dwellings has increased over the last 15 years, as has the cost of virtually everything.

Second, a high proportion of dwelling investment is in the form of alterations and additions – i.e. upgrading existing houses rather than building new ones. Almost half of all dwelling investment has been accounted for by alterations and additions in recent years.
So, residents are choosing to renovate and extend rather than invest in new dwellings. I think most people can agree with this. Why give up the house you have to move to the outskirts of the city where public amenity is poor and the cost of constructing a new property is significant. Why not just alter your current property?

Third, a higher proportion of the new houses built are simply replacing existing houses that have been demolished. The RBA estimate that between 2001 and 2006, around 15 per cent of new houses built replaced houses that had been demolished; 10–15 years earlier, that figure was less than 10 per cent.
This comment suggests that only 85 per cent of new dwelling commencements actually add to supply, the other 15 per cent is simply there to replace those properties which have been demolished.


Fourth, a significant proportion of dwelling investment appears to have gone into holiday homes or second homes. Census data show that the number of dwellings built has exceeded the increase in the number of households by a large margin. As a result, the ratio of the number of dwellings to the number of households has been rising over time; as at 2006, there were 8 per cent more dwellings in Australia than there were households. Presumably, most of this surplus reflects holiday houses and second houses.
With economic prosperity comes demand for second homes and holiday homes. It can therefore also be assumed that 8 per cent of new dwelling additions are going to be ‘consumed’ for want of a better word by those who already have somewhere to live. This leaves us in an interesting position, only around 77 percent of dwelling commencements in this country are actually catering to population growth, no wonder we can’t build enough stock.

Speaking at the same conference as the Deputy Governor was the National Housing Supply Council chairman Dr. Owen Donald. He raised significant concerns about the impact that land supply, finance, planning reforms and local governments will have on the supply of new homes. He stated that the country would fall short of providing the 153,000 dwellings required each year until 2028.

He also raised concerns about local area activism which was constricting supply, particularly in inner city areas which were ripe for infill development. These groups are commonly referred to as NIMBY’s the Not In My Back Yard crusaders.

Undoubtedly this is a tough situation to manage, in order to cater for additional demand higher densities and in particularly higher densities in inner city areas are important. However, inner city areas are where land costs are greatest, where people have forked out a greater amount of their hard earned cash to live and where there is a greater supply of our character homes. What makes Australia unique is that you can still buy a house just minutes from a major city. Around the world most cities have gone the other way and your only option for housing close to the city is a unit.

The results of the recently released Housing Mobility and Conditions Survey show that the second greatest reason for people moving house (after buying their own property) is because they wanted a bigger or better home. The survey also found that a common theme throughout the study was that when people were dissatisfied with their property, size and in particular not enough size, was a commonly recurring theme.

It would appear that Australian’s still long for the large block of land with the large houses yet we continue to push for inner city densification. There is undoubtedly demand for this type of development and it is certainly appealing when you’re young and single but speaking from experience, I think many reach a point in their life where they want a property of their own. One which they don’t share with a variety of common owners and in my opinion, many want the freedom to do what they choose and not to be governed by Body Corporate by-laws. This being the reason why you see such a high proportion of single person and couple household within inner city suburbs which are dominated by units.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Investors step back into Adelaide real estate markets in November 2009

A recent report from QBE Lenders Mortgage Insurance projects double-digit growth in median house prices for all capital cities until June 2012, including growth of 23% in Adelaide.

While first home buyers are often heralded for spurring this kind of growth during the "up" phase of a property cycle, their role may not be as significant as many people think.

Yes, first home buyers tend to enter the market in greater numbers when interest rates are low and affordability is higher.

However, these buyers account for less than 10% of all purchasers, so they don't have the critical mass required to influence price growth significantly.

In addition, first home buyers generally buy to a price ceiling and are extremely price-sensitive.

They don't have as much equity as returning home buyers, so they are often forced to borrow a sizeable percentage of the purchase price and live on a tight budget.

When rates begin to rise again, as they are doing now, many first home buyers become concerned that they won't be able to meet mortgage repayments, and the burst of activity begins to peter out.

First home buyers usually purchase at the lower end of the market, so even when the value of their property rises substantially, it doesn't contribute much to overall median price movements.

If a first home buyer purchases a $300,000 house, and the property's value increases by 7 per cent a year, it will be worth $21,000 more after one year — barely nudging the wider median price.

By contrast, investors are more consistent participants in the property market, because their cash flow is boosted by rental income and negative-gearing tax breaks.



They also account for a higher proportion of buyers at any given time; about 30 percent.

Additionally, they tend to buy around the middle of the market, so their properties exert a stronger influence on median values.

If an investor purchases a $500,000 property that grows at 7 per cent a year, the asset will be worth an extra $35,000 after one year.

Multiply that kind of increase across the investor market, and you'll see where a major driver of median price growth really lies.

The other major contributors to median price growth are returning home buyers seeking to upgrade or downsize.

They're a bigger proportion of the market than first home buyers or investors — about 60 per cent.

They also have plenty of equity from their previous home, and tend to buy at the middle to upper levels of the market.

If a returning home buyer purchases a property for $800,000, and that property grows at 7 per cent a year, it will be worth $56,000 more after one year.

That's almost three times as much price growth, in dollar terms, as their first home buying counterparts can achieve from an entry level, $300,000 property.

In short, returning home buyers influence median price growth far more than newcomers because they're a bigger mass with more buying power.

Right now, first home buyers are increasingly sensitive to the property markets because rising interest rates and prevailing lending practices will hamper affordability.

At the same time, investors are on their way into the market, buoyed by the knowledge that rising rates signal a stabilising economy.

Investors will compete in the market until rates rise to unsustainable levels, while first home buyers will lie low.

Returning home buyers are more risk-averse than investors, so they'll wait until they feel certain that the economy has recovered.

The property market will peak when investors and returning home buyers are active at the same time.

I expect investors will come back to the market first, followed by returning home buyers about 12 months later.

This activity will drive competition — and in all likelihood push median price growth to the levels predicted by QBE LMI.

In summary:


- First home buyers have a sporadic market presence.

- Investors and returning home buyers will drive the lion's share of growth.


If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

New Super-town North of Adelaide: What does this mean?

Written by Chris Nicolas

Urban sprawl is taking effect on Adelaide, as the urban boundary expands to the Gawler region, the once regional town will be transformed into a metropolitan super-town called Concordia with more than 18,000 homes and 46,000 people. The developed land will be 2,500ha of farm land that will be transformed over 40-years subject to state planning approval with the unprecedented project possibly commencing in 2011 and the first-stage released in 2012. The externalities that this will have on the Adelaide property market are going to be quite complex impacting supply, land price, housing affordability, building costs, infrastructure, and property prices just to name a few. The relaxation of development controls as the land is rezoned causes massive opportunities and threats.
The intrusive urban-transformation is in close proximity to the iconic Barossa Valley, which may devalue from the tourist hot-spot taking away from the pleasant scenery. However, this is great news for housing affordability as the new supply will help make-up the short-fall that Adelaide is experiencing.

The proposed features of the new town are:

- 2 x Train stations linked to Gawler rail line (Funded by developer);
- New roads linking to Barossa Valley Hwy, Sturt Hwy & New Northern Expressway;
- 5 x Primary Schools, 2 x High Schools, 1 x Tertiary Institution;
- Offices and Shops to create approximately 6,500 jobs;
- Waste-water treatment plant to supply for irrigation.

Click Here to see the NEW Northern Expressway

Another externality could be on the cost and availability of resources during the building stages; considering the amount of resources that will be attracted to this area throughout the project. It will be plausible to expect building costs (e.g. labour and materials) to increase in South Australia from 2011 as the project demand for resources pushes up price.

These are only a few of the ripple effect of one of many planned projects happening in South Australia in the foreseeable future. It is important to be able to analyse these impacts when buying property in South Australia (or in any market) in order to capitalize and maximise your return on investment. If you are thinking about investing in Adelaide then get educated and invest smart through the professionals at Direct Negotiations.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Australian property: ripe for international investors.

Written by Chris Nicolas
16th October 2009
The international property market in recent years has been unstable, vulnerable to weakening economies and irresponsible banking systems. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) many developed economies have fallen victim heading into recession with property prices crashing. Australia has defied the odds being the amongst the few developed countries to experience genuine economic growth through this turbulent period.
The Australian property market is well positioned to overide the full impact of the GFC and avoid the path that the US and other formerly competetive property markets have recently experienced. Unlike the US, Australia is experiencing an undersupply of property, the financial system does not have non-recourse loans and has stricter credit policies, unemployment rate has recently decreased from 5.8% to 5.7%,(as opposed to the official predicted 8.5%) and the Australian dollar is on its way up.
With the federal government’s stimulus grant for first-home buyers coming to an end on 31 December 2009 and interest rates set to re-calibrate as a result of a speedy and evidently strong economic recovery, many potential first—home buyers are likely to change their preference back towards renting. This is great news for property investors; with demand easing, prices may become more negotiable, coupled with increasing rent and investment returns.



A recent report by mortgage insurer QBE LMI, which was researched by BIS Shrapnel, has provided a housing outlook for 2010-2012 in Australia. The result suggests that overall, Australian capital city property is set to grow between 12-23% from June 2009 to June 2012 with Adelaide predicted to outperform the nation with 23% growth.
Now is a great time to buy property in Adelaide with unprecedented government investment in infrastructure creating thousands of jobs and having a massive impact on the future property values in regenerated areas.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

South Australia fifth ranked fifth among international mining jurisdictions in ResourceStocks’ 2009 World Risk Survey.

South Australia has continued to excell in mineral exploration spending.

Minister for Mineral Resources Development Paul Holloway says the latest statistics show the State steps into the 4th quarter, with total spending on mineral exploration rising to $41.8 million for the June quarter, up from $36 million during the previous three-month period – a rise of 16.1 per cent.

Combined minerals and petroleum expenditure for the 2008-09 financial year was $332.9 million.

The figures are reflected in South Australia’s fifth ranking among international mining jurisdictions in ResourceStocks’ 2009 World Risk Survey.

“The turnaround in resource exploration expenditure reflects improvement in global commodity prices and South Australia’s determination to continue to increase our State’s economic prosperity through the minerals and energy sectors,” Mr Holloway says.

“Unlike other states, South Australia has not experienced any mine closures as a result of the global financial crisis. During the next 12 months, a further four to five mines are expected to be approved in South Australia, building on the 11 mines currently operating in this State.”

Property prices across Australia are expected to grow significantly over the next three years, as upgraders and investors compete for stock in the same, already undersupplied, property market.



Low interest rates and a shortage of affordable housing, coupled with growth in rental rates, will continue to drive up house prices - despite the threat of higher borrowing costs, according to the QBE Lenders' Mortgage Insurance (QBE LMI) Housing Outlook 2010-2012.

Adelaide, where property is the most affordable, is expected to see the strongest price gains, clocking a 23 percent rise over the next three years.

Ian Graham, chief executive of QBE LMI said the outlook was particularly good for first home buyers who have recently joined the housing ladder, and South Australia's favourable environment will attract greater numbers of solid investors to the market.

"The surge in first home buyer demand is now slowly permeating through to greater demand from upgraders who are trading over to their next dwelling after selling to the buoyant first home buyer market," he said.

"The strong rental environment and stabilisation of prices is also continuing to attract investors into the market."


If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Auction Review - 36 Jervois Ave. Magill, Adelaide

SOLD $451,000
3rd October 2009 at 1pm on site
Written by Chris Nicolas
About the Property:
The property is a two bedroom, 1 bathroom original sandstone fronted 1950 Art Deco home. The property is currently leased until 26th November 2009 for $260 per week. The approximately 676sqm allotment appeared to have a slight gradient from the backyard down to the front. Considering the council’s development plan criteria, the zoning requirements stipulate a minimum of 350sqm per allotment. A development of two semi-detached dwellings on this site may be difficult with a non-complying application likely to be necessary. For the successful purchaser it would most likely be desirable to extend and renovate the existing structure rather than redevelop.
Commentary:
The highly skilled auctioneer Phil Harris of Toop & Toop proceeded with the auction at 1pm in reasonably good weather. Many neighbours turned out to watch the event in interest as the bidding started at $390,000. With only three serious bidders, it was evident that the market consisted of young couples and families from different backgrounds.



The bids increased in $10,000 increments until bidding stalled at $440,000, when Phil started to accept bids in $5,000 increments. For one family the bidding exceeded their cut-off point early and at $450,000 the auction was coming to a conclusion with all the bidders at their limits. Phil attempted to squeeze every dollar out of the final two competing parties by calling for additional $500 bids to buy the property. This did not last long and the “fall of the hammer” found a young couple to be the new successful purchasers of 36 Jervois Avenue Magill for $451,000.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Australian property shows 8% growth in 2009

National property values jumped by almost 2 per cent in August in the largest monthly movement since the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Indices began in January 2005.

Using the rpdata.com (ASX: RPX) property database, which is Australia’s largest and includes over 170,000 sales during the first eight months of 2009, Australia’s housing recovery solidified during the month of August with strong capital gains registered across the country despite evidence of slightly decreasing first home buyer numbers.

Home values in Australia rose by an exceptional 1.9 per cent during the month of August. This brings cumulative capital growth in the first eight months of 2009 to a better than expected 7.9 per cent. According to rpdata.com research director, Tim Lawless, the August results surprised on the upside and are indicative of very high levels of buyer confidence combined with low levels of property available on the market.

“These buoyant conditions sit in striking contrast to the same time last year when values were falling in some states, less than half of the auctions held cleared and sales volumes were at rock bottom. We are now seeing home values rising at a solid rate, almost 80 per cent of auctions are clearing, and sales volumes have bounced back significantly”, Mr Lawless said.


Rismark International managing director, Christopher Joye, added, “Australia’s housing market is being underpinned by the strongest population growth since 1971, record housing shortages, historically low mortgage rates, better than expected employment outcomes, and one of the world’s most profitable banking systems.”

Australian home values have now risen 3.8 per cent past their February 2008 peak. This rebound followed peak-to-trough falls in national home values of just 3.8 per cent in 2008, which compares exceptionally well with the 15 per cent and 30 per cent house price declines seen in the UK and US, respectively.

Dispelling concerns that the recovery is limited to first home buyers Mr Joye commented, “In contrast to claims that this is a first time buyer bubble, the cheapest 20 per cent of suburbs in Australia have actually underperformed both the mid-priced market and Australia’s 20 per cent most expensive suburbs since the housing market bottomed in December 2008.”

“As recently noted by the RBA, all major lenders now require a minimum 10 per cent deposit and are applying the strictest credit standards we’ve seen in over a decade. Australian housing credit growth has also been running at levels that are extremely low by historical standards and noticeably less than the growth experienced in the 1991 recession,” Mr Joye said.

Rpdata.com’s Tim Lawless concurred with Mr Joye and said that over the last three months the premium residential market increased in value by 4.5 per cent compared with a 3.4 per cent gain in the middle market and a 2.8 per cent improvement at the cheapest end.
“Despite the strong gains, the bounce in the premium sector has not been enough to offset the peak to trough fall of 9.9 per cent between February 2008 and January 2009.Prices in Australia’s most expensive markets are still 1.1 per cent lower than at their peak.”

Mr Joye added, “While the resounding recovery in Australia’s housing market confirms our forecasts, we expect medium term growth rates to be more measured as mortgage rates normalise back to between 7-8 per cent. This would bring the cost of housing finance back in line with its 2000-01 levels, which is notably well below the searing 9.6% highs endured by borrowers in August 2008 care of the RBA.”

In closing Tim Lawless said that the upward momentum in Australian house prices is a critical economic signal from the market to builders and developers to encourage them to reinvest in producing new housing supply. This was a message reinforced by the RBA’s Dr Anthony Richards in a speech to CEDA yesterday: policymakers need to facilitate significant new investment in housing supply to alleviate Australia’s growing housing shortage, which ANZ and Westpac estimate has risen to around 200,000 homes.


“This price growth will also go a long way to comforting risk-averse lenders to start providing credit again to developers, which has been one of the main bottlenecks on the supply-side. And it will stimulate the reallocation of resources away from other sectors of the economy into much-needed housing investment.” Mr Lawless said.

Other key findings from the August RP Data-Rismark Index results:

Unit values (+2.1 per cent) have marginally outperformed house values (+1.8 per cent) in the month of August. Over the course of 2009, units (+8.5 per cent) have also generated slightly higher capital growth than houses (+7.7 per cent).

Most capital cities recorded robust gains in the month of August with every single city experiencing rises in home values during the first eight months of 2009.

After several years of subdued growth following the end of Australia’s last housing boom in 2003, which saw Australia’s “house price-to-income ratio” fall by nearly 20 per cent through to December 2008, home values in the two major capital cities, Melbourne and Sydney, have led the recovery in 2009 with total capital gains of 11.6 per cent and 8.6 per cent, respectively.

Following Melbourne, Darwin has been the next best performing capital city with growth of 9.7 per cent in 2009. Interestingly, Darwin also continues to deliver the highest rental yields, implying that the market may have room for further growth.

Home values in Canberra (+6.7 per cent), Brisbane (+5.2 per cent), Perth (+4.1 per cent) and Adelaide (+3.1 per cent) have also realised sustained gains in 2009.

As RP Data-Rismark correctly anticipated, residential real estate in Perth has experienced a recovery in 2009 after a period of falling prices since September 2007. While Perth dwellings have recorded 4.1 per cent growth in the first eight months of the year they still remain 3.6 per cent below their September 2007 peak.

National rental yields have softened slightly given the strong capital growth with the gross annualised rental yield for units being 5.1 per cent while house rental yields are slightly lower at 4.3 per cent.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

FIRST- HOME BUYER’S BOOST TO BE PHASED OUT.

From 1 October 2009 the First Home Owners Boost payment, as part of the Federal Government Stimulus Package will be cut in half.
During 1 October – 31 December 2009 an eligible applicant who signs a contract to purchase an existing home will receive an extra $3,500, as opposed to the $7,000 previously. While signing a contract to purchase or construct a new home during the same period will provide an additional $7,000, instead of the $14,000 offered before the 1 October 2009. After 31 December 2009 the Boost payment will cease and only the standard First-Home Owner’s Grant will apply.
Consequently, there is likely to be a ‘Rush’ of first-home buyers entering the market to capitalize on the additional funds before the Boost expires at end of the year. It is likely that during this period there will be hyper-inflated prices in some entry-level properties as increased demand and limited stock availability pushes up prices. Therefore, buyers need to be very cautious of the true value of properties targeted at first-home buyers during this period.


Auctions, especially are going to be difficult to gauge during this time of high emotions with the effective application of real estate marketing methods by experienced sales agents and auctioneers playing on the under researched and/or vulnerable. The best advice is to become market-educated, understand your target areas and the true value of properties without the hype. It is always recommended to get professional advice on building and pest inspections to ensure a sound structure and independent advice from a property professional. If you think you may be eligible for the First-Home Owner’s Grant and wish to capitalize on the Boost then please contact a team member at Direct Negotiations for a free, no-obligation discussion on your options.
Written by Chris Nicolas at Direct Negotiations



If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Le Fevre Peninsula in high demand.

With so many choices for investment, identifying quality investment property locations can be a challenging job for current investors. Project marketers and seminar spruikers push suburbs where they have teamed up with developers, offering far from un-biased opinions on Adelaide’s future ‘hot-spots.’ Helpful relations at weekend barbecues too will offer their ‘expert’ opinions on where you should or should not direct your capital or potential Self Managed Super Fund. One such client, confused and seeking independant advice recently asked our opinion on a western coastal suburb... Osborne.
In terms of investment potential, the Port’s redevelopment and the long-term defence contracts at Osborne will drive property investment throughout most Le Fevre peninsula suburbs.
Semaphore, Exeter, Ethelton, Glanville and Peterhead are particularly in demand in the expectation they will outperform other suburbs, according to UniSA property lecturer Peter Koulizos. These five suburbs were also named by Australian Property Investor magazine recently in a list of the top 100 property hotspots in Australia. My opinion is the entire area will lift as a whole so we are then able to focus on stand out opportunities in the broader Le Fevre area.
Key drivers for growth in the area are the ongoing Port Adelaide regeneration and the $10 billion+ defence projects for the construction of submarines and air warship destroyers on the Port River.
Techport Australia, the evolving naval industry hub based at Osborne in the Port Adelaide area, is home to naval shipbuilder ASC and it's where three Air Warfare Destroyer vessels will be built for the navy at a cost of $8bn, to be followed by a $15bn (some reports say $30bn) enterprise to create 12 new submarines. The facility has state government backing, in the form of $300 million worth of state-owned infrastructure. The supplier precinct for naval defence and related businesses covers 35ha initially, but there are 500ha available for long-term development.
The $8bn project to create three major vessels for the navy is under way, with ships to be delivered in 2014, 2016 and 2017 (with possibly a fourth destroyer to follow). Next in line is the submarine construction venture, Australia's largest defence project. Techport is already home to the Collins submarine support program, a 25-year contract. Outside Techport, but in the Port Adelaide area, new port infrastructure is to be developed by BHP Billiton to support its massive expansion of the Olympic Dam mine at Roxby Downs. Already awarded are a $40m contract with BAE Systems Australia (satellite communications), a $10m project with Babcock Strachan & Henshaw (torpedo launch tubes) and a $40m deal with Raytheon Missile Systems.

Much of the defence work at Osborne will require skilled workers and many of them will come from overseas. The state government expects the naval defence work to lift the state's defence workforce from 16,000 to 28,000 within three or four years. As most people generally want to live close to where they work, suburbs in and around Osborne will be in high demand.

So in summary, the factors suggest this area will perform positively. We encourage all of our clients to remain logical and seek independant unbiased advice before committing to major property investment. For advice on what opportunities we currently see arising in the Adelaide market, call Ben Ottewill at Direct Negotiations for a no-obligation chat.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Adelaide's Northern suburbs proposed master plan

A RECREATIONAL saltwater lake, a new marina and an 11km waterfront precinct are proposed as part of a redevelopment of the Dry Creek salt pans north of Adelaide.
Owner of the site, Ridley Corporation, has announced it will forge ahead with plans to develop the plains into a mixed-use urban development to house 20,000 new residents.
The project is being investigated in co-operation with Delfin Lend Lease – the developer behind Mawson Lakes – and the Land Management Corporation, which owns much of the surrounding land.
While the cost of the development has not been determined, the project is 30 per cent bigger in area than the $1.5 billion Mawson Lakes development and will house twice as many people.



Ridley said a preliminary master plan prepared with Delfin Lend Lease had been completed as part of a feasibility study and included:
A DEVELOPMENT area of 980 hectares.
10,000 DWELLINGS housing more than 20,000 residents.
11 KILOMETRES of developable waterfront land.
A 40 HECTARE town centre and mixed-use precinct.
TWO neighbourhood precincts.
A 120-HECTARE saltwater recreational lake with ocean access and marina facilities.
CREATION of dedicated areas for new mangrove habitats and wetlands.
City of Salisbury manager Stephen Haines said it would be an enormous boost to the northern suburbs.
"This proposal will bring support to our commercial centres, it will provide employees for the many jobs being created out here and it will be a boost to the university and schools in this area," he said.
The second phase of Ridley's feasibility plan will be completed by December this year, and the LMC said it expected to provide the State Government with an interim report on the development early next year.


If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, we guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

Norwood Auction

I have just returned from a Fri 11.30 am auction in Sydneham Road, Norwood. The property was quoted at $385,000. A circa 1870 freestanding cottage in the heart of Norwood on a relatively small allotment. There were approximately 30 registered bidders and about 100 people attending the auction. The bids opened at $425,000. (much to the dismay of 27 bidders!)Three remaining bidders assisted in bringing the hammer down in the 450k region.


Direct Negotiations rendered reports and cross referenced through various avenues and estimated this to be very close to the real value on the day. The market is moving along very well, and properties are selling quickly. The market is realistic. Properties are selling when priced accurately. There is huge demand for quality properties from local, interstate and offshore purchasers. The key is to be prepared with correct and up to date information in order to make clear investment choices.

DID YOU ATTEND THE AUCTION? WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS?

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Underquoting in South Australian real estate

It has started creeping back into the Adelaide residential real estate market...
UNDERQUOTING.-
I will very brieftly explain the changes that were imposed by REISA on the South Australian real estate industry. The document is about 40 pages. This is a summary on pricing.
Revised regulations came into effect in July 2008. The addtional laws were designed to curb pricing irregularities. In the sales agency agreement the document must specify the agent's genuine estimate of the selling price of the property. The price can be expressed as a single figure (e.g. $400,000), or a price range. A price range must be specified by nominating upper and lower values. The upper value must not exceed the lower value by more than 10%. That is to say, if the lower value is $400,000 then the upper value can not be higher than $440,000. The lowest quoted amount in a price range,represents the lowest amount of money that the vendor (seller) stated that he/she would accept in payment for the property.

Potential home buyers and investors are lured into thinking they have a genuine opportunity of securing the property based on the agent's relatively understated price indication. The purchaser proceeds to expend time, money and emotion, including building & pest inspections, strata inspection reports, architects for renovations, solicitors & conveyancers, council searches and deposit money preparation to finally discover that they never had a chance of being successful & the seller wouldn’t have ever accepted the price that was originally quoted by the agent. The price was simply used to ‘bait’ their interest.
This method of underquoting attracts a lot of buyers to ‘sale by negotiation’ as well as auctions. Mislead purchasers create a sense of excitement in the early stages, while the more astute and well informed buyers attend with a plan, a budget and primary/seconday information required to accurately evaluate the offering.



The majority of agents originally took these regulations quite seriously.
The market has been bouyant in the lower - medium sector. Median home values in South Australia have risen during a very turbulant eighteen months. There has been a lot of confusion about global property values, particularly to those who have listened to the media without the consultation of primary or secondary research.
A real estate agent may make first contact with a vendor years before the property goes to market. The sales process involves the agent keeping in touch and giving updates as to market influences and pricing.- Some do this more effectively than others.
If an agent quotes a price to a vendor a year prior to listiing, then takes a month to start the sales campaign, and another month to sell, then after 14 months, the price will have adjusted, sometimes by 15%, taking into considerations that over 10 suburbs have risen over 38% in the last 2 years.
The vendor and agent may advertise the home a little over the original agreed value as of 14 months prior. The purchasers inevitably flock to an obvioulsy underpriced property and climb over each other to throw offers at the agent. When there are dozens of interested parties, then emotion dominates (even with entry level investors) and the price is driven up above genuine market value. This is known within the industry as "feeding the greed"
There are some agents who, for no reason other than to deceive, deliberately underquote or "lowball" the stated value - Especially in the case of auction.

Have you experienced blatant underquoting?
Have you been influenced to pay a considerable amount of money above the original stated asking price for a property?
We'd like to hear about it...

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, We guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61 (0)8 84631997

A brief history of Adelaide . Part 1/3

Colonel Light’s original plan for the 100 of Adelaide and its belt of parklands became the fundamental benchmark in Adelaide's planning in the post-war years. Work on the plan began in the late 1950’s. By 1959 interim recommendations were being considered and the final printed plan and illustrated report were submitted to State Parliament in 1962.



Adelaide in the late 1950s had a population of just over half a million. There was little urban development north of Gepps Cross, but the first houses were being built at Elizabeth. Tea Tree Gully was still rural and development did not extend south beyond Darlington. Migrants were flooding in. The population was increasing at 18-20,000 a year and metropolitan Adelaide had become the third largest and fastest growing city in Australia.
University students, women’s organisations and others became involved in basic surveys for the Plan and a small enthusiastic staff was engaged. It was thought feasible to plan for 20 to 30 years ahead to assist public utility and transport authorities. Forecasting future population is a hazardous task, but it was estimated that a million was likely by 1981 and many more by 1991.

A sudden downturn in the rate of population growth in 1970s resulted in the million figure not being passed until the turn of the century.



The hills limit Adelaide’s expansion to the east and the sea to the west, forcing expansion north and south. The most suitable land for urban development to the north lies on the plains nearer to the hills. Elizabeth had been planned with a town centre similar to the British new towns being built at that time and this form of development was thought to be adaptable for Adelaide’s expansion.


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A brief history of Adelaide . Part 2/3

Decentralisation, satellite towns, tall blocks and higher densities had little chance of acceptance. Tea Tree Gully and Noarlunga developed later with their own major centres. The opportunity to establish a satellite town came in the early seventies; a site was obtained at Monarto and a development corporation established. Forecasts of reducing population growth caused its demise, giving additional impetus to Adelaide’s future northerly and southerly expansion.

New routes would be required to the north, northeast and south enabling unrestricted movement of people and goods; a system of freeways, major roads and rail extensions were proposed. These proposals needed more detailed investigation, as major land acquisition would be involved. American consultants were engaged and the resulting Metropolitan Adelaide Transportation Study (MATS) took place in the 1960s. Its recommendations included additional freeway routes and a rail subway under King William Street. The study caused widespread concern as individual properties on all the new routes could be identified. Some routes were dropped but others were retained.



The O’Bahn now operates on the original route proposed to Tea Tree Gully. To the north new routes have been established with links to Port Adelaide; to the south the Expressway extends to the Onkaparinga and the railway has been extended to the Noarlunga Centre. Land was being purchased for the important but controversial north-south connecting route through the western suburbs, but the proposal was finally abandoned in the 1980s. This has meant a continuing increase in traffic on the inadequate South Road.

New parks and recreation areas were necessary near where people were to live and secured long before the need arose. The plan recommended a means of financing their purchase. Subsequently the amount of land for open space was increased when land was divided into allotments and money from small divisions and strata titles paid into a special fund. An unexpected source of federal funds enabled almost all the land proposed as open space to be obtained by 1977.

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A brief history of Adelaide . Part 3/3

At the end of the 1950s the State’s economy was evolving from a dependence on primary production towards an economy based on manufacturing and service industries. Port Adelaide and the north-western suburbs were the traditional location of industry and have continued to be so. There was a brief flurry of expectancy in the 1990s when land near the port was selected as the site for Australia’s hi-tech Japanese Multi Function Polis. Industrial sites were being provided in Elizabeth and there was other suitable land in Salisbury. To the south, industry was already located along South Road, an oil refinery was to be built south of Hallett Cove and adjacent land was thought suitable for industry.

Speculative post-war subdivision was resulting in unmade roads and inadequate services. The development of Elizabeth set a new pattern to be followed by developments such as West Lakes, Golden Grove, Seaford and Mawson Lakes; all with landscaped roads, shops, schools and open spaces.




In the 1950s there was strong public attachment to single storey houses on spacious allotments and acceptance of closer living to reduce servicing costs seemed unlikely. Over the following years single person households have increased, smaller lots created and apartment living accepted.
The high costs of servicing the steep land overlooking the city provided a sound economic reason for limiting development and thus preserving its natural beauty. The Hills Face Zone has remained relatively unscathed for several decades, but its retention needs constant vigilance.



The most noteworthy outcome of the 1962 Plan’s recommendations has been that planning has become an integral part of State and local government administration with departments serviced by professional staffs and public appeal rights against adverse decisions. Fifty years is a short time in the life of a city. Others than someone involved with the plan’s preparation will judge whether it maintained Adelaide’s reputation as “a monument to far sighted town planning”.



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Adelaide housing shortage to intensify

ADELAIDE will need almost 30,000 new houses in the next five years to keep up with an escalating population, a new report shows.

The Australia On The Move report, released yesterday, forecasts Adelaide's population to increase by 18 per cent – or 213,823 – by 2027.

The Residential Development Council and Matusik Property Insights report reveals Adelaide will need an extra 5856 houses every year for five years.

The forecast is higher than an 2001 report, conducted by demographer Bernard Salt, which said Adelaide needed 5113 new houses each year between 2001 and 2011 and 3788 every year after that until 2031.



Residential Development Council executive director Caryn Kakas said the Australian population was expected to explode. That will certainly add stress to the Adelaide housing supply and demand deficit.

"Limited supply and rising demand can only lead to one thing: rising prices. And rising prices means less affordable housing," she said.

The report shows Adelaide's current estimated residential population is 1.18 million. That is expected to increase by more than 200,000 by 2027.

South Australia's population is forecast to grow by 17 per cent to 1,898,754. Australia's population is anticipated to increase by almost six million people within 20 years which means at least 155,000 houses per year during that period will be required.

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South Australia Honeymoon Mine JV is in the Yellow

Japan’s Mitsui and Canada’s Uranium One have reached a milestone in their development of the $118 million state-of-the-art Honeymoon uranium mine.

Construction began in April on the mine in South Australia’s north-east, 37 years after yellowcake was first found at the site.

Premier Mike Rann has congratulated the Honeymoon joint venture as the first foray by a Japanese investor into Australia’s uranium mining industry.

“Honeymoon will be capable of producing about 400 tonnes of uranium oxide a year, worth about $80 million to South Australia’s tally of annual mineral exports,” Mr Rann says.



The mine is one of the many projects proceeding in South Australia’s resource industry.

Mineral Resources Development Minister Paul Holloway says four or five mines are expected to be approved in the next 12 months, building on the 11 operating in the State now.

Among them is the Jacinth-Ambrosia mineral sands project, which is on track to begin operations in 2010, while the proposed Olympic Dam expansion took another step toward fruition with the release of its environmental impact statement in early May. Submissions will be received until 7 August.

South Australia’s resources sector remains strong despite the downturn in mineral exploration spending reflected in the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.

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South Australian international student intake up 24%

South Australia’s international education industry continues to defy the economic downturn by outstripping the national average to record a 24% jump in overseas student enrolments in the first three months of 2009.

Employment, Training and Further Education Minister, Michael O’Brien, says the latest Australian Education International (AEI) figures emphasize the resilience of international education in the face of the global financial crisis.

“It’s up to 30% cheaper for many Asian students to study in Adelaide this year due to the lower Australian dollar,” Mr O’Brien says.

“That’s reflected in the 24.3% hike in enrolments we’ve recorded so far in 2009 – our strongest growth rate in seven years.

“If that growth continues, we are on target to attract a record 32,000 international students by the end of the year,” Mr O’Brien says.

Nationally, AEI figures show that international student enrolments rose 20.8% in the first three months of 2009 – pouring more than $15 billion into the national economy.

Mr O’Brien says the continued buoyancy of South Australia’s $741 million international education industry is no mere accident.

“South Australia’s university and training providers must be commended for their highly professional international office marketing and recruitment programs.

“And we don’t just reap financial benefits: our education providers are helping to teach the next generation of Asian leaders, which in turn enhances their understanding of our language and culture and fosters closer ties with South Australia.”

‘The State Government is also providing $500,000 for primary and high school fees to be waived for the dependants of international Higher Degree by Research students studying at South Australian universities.

“This is a positive initiative coming from next week’s State Budget, which will rectify the disadvantage we have faced against other states offering fee waivers.

“This fee waiver only applies to Higher Degree by Research students who are sponsored by scholarships from their home countries.

“The scheme, to be funded over four years, will boost university efforts to attract the brightest students from countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates.

“The decision means we will be in a position of parity with our major interstate competitors and it provides an opportunity to expand our research and innovation base,” Mr O’Brien says.

Commencements in South Australia grew 21.1% to the end of March, compared with a national average of 18%.

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Adelaide house prices 2009

Australian home values recorded a healthy 2.8% increase over the first four months of 2009

The RP Data/Rismark Australian Home Value Index out today confirmed that housing values around Australia rose by a healthy 2.8 per cent over the first four months to April 09—virtually wiping out the price falls seen in 2008 according to RP Data National Research Director Tim Lawless.

Over the first four months to April 09, every mainland capital city apart from Perth recorded an increase in home values with the most significant gains in Darwin (+5.3 per cent), Melbourne (+4.4 per cent), and Sydney (+3.9 per cent).

The recent growth in the Australian residential property market has fuelled speculation about a ‘bubble’ developing in the first home buyers market but RP Data’s Mr Lawless believes these claims are largely unjustified.



“Home values in Australian capital cities mortgage belts, which are the prime first home buyer markets, were flat or falling between 2004-07 while the inner city and affluent markets enjoyed consistent growth. In 2008-09 we have seen a reversal of these fortunes,” he said.

Mr Joye adds “While first-time buyer activity has certainly supported the market, people forget that 70-75 per cent of home buyers are not first timers. Also, lending standards are more conservative today than they have been for over 15 years with maximum borrowing ratios being consistently reduced.”

The return to capital growth comes as weekly rental rates start to level.

Mr Lawless said, “Rental rates across Australia have powered ahead over the last three years, providing the best gross rental yields investors have seen for a long time.

“We are now seeing growth rates for weekly rents start to level due to decreasing rental affordability which is causing many renters to consider buying a home instead of renting.

“Gross rental yields are likely to peak over the coming months suggesting that now is probably the best time for investors to roll up their sleeves and become active,” he said.

In terms of housing stock, units are continuing to outperform houses where over the first four months of 2009 values increased by 3.3 per cent while house values increased by 2.7 per cent.

In closing Mr Lawless said “The stronger performance of the unit market is due to a number of factors. Comparing median house and unit values nationally, the price gap between is just over $90,000, so the value proposition of a unit is very compelling. Additionally, units are generally located closer to the city and along transport spines which is very appealing to many Gen Y and Gen X buyers,” he said.

The monthly Australian capital city home value changes are as follows: January (+0.1 per cent); February (+1 per cent); March (+0.6 per cent); and April (+1 per cent). The April index results are indicative and may be subject to small revisions.


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First contract awarded to Adelaide firm in Federal Governments $300bn defence plan

A battery-manufacturing company from Adelaide's western suburbs has been awarded the first contract to work on research and development for 12 planned new submarines.
Pacific Marine Batteries has hired 20 engineers and technicians to design a battery that may be used to power the new submarines.

The South Australian Premier, Mike Rann, says the research and development contract for a battery is an important one.

"At the moment each Collins class submarine carries about 450 tonnes of batteries, but the next generation of submarines is going to need about 650 tonnes of batteries and they're going to have to have a longer life, because the new submarines are going to have a longer range and are going to spend longer under water," he said.



The state's hi-tech defence and ship-building industries would benefit from billions of dollars of weapons purchases including new warships, fighter jets, and manned and unmanned spy planes proposed to be based at the Edinburgh RAAF base.

Billions of dollars and thousands of jobs are earmarked for South Australia in the Federal Government's $300 billion defence contracts plan.

The plan for defence equipment across the nation includes:

100 stealth jet fighters,
EIGHT new frigates,
20 fast offshore combat vessels,
SIX heavy landing craft,
66 new helicopters,
EIGHT maritime patrol planes,
A 15,000-tonne supply ship.

The army's expansion has been set in stone and the new Adelaide-based battalion and all the ancillary works associated with it will now proceed.

Bigger salaries, conditions and housing for the Australian Defence Force's 55,000 uniformed personnel is also provided.

SA Premier Mike Rann says it will secure thousands of jobs and years more shipbuilding work in Adelaide.

"This is the cream on the cake for us and also guarantees another massive project to follow the air warfare destroyers project," he said.


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BHP Billiton Olympic Dam expansion - Shot in the arm for South Australia

BHP Billiton is seeking the approval of the Australian, South Australian and Northern Territory governments for a significant expansion of its existing mining and processing operation at Olympic Dam in northern South Australia.

Located 560 kilometres north of Adelaide, South Australia, Olympic Dam is a multi-mineral ore body. It is the world's fourth largest remaining copper and gold deposit and the largest known uranium deposit. It also contains significant quantities of silver.

The proposed expansion would be a progressive development, requiring construction activity over a period of 11 years. The project schedule ultimately will depend on the timing and nature of government approvals and the final investment decision of the BHP Billiton Board.

BHP Billiton has announced plans to turn its Olympic Dam mine in South Australia into the largest open cut on earth.

A 4600-page environmental impact statement, released by the company May 1, 2009 , set out an ambitious timetable for the conversion of the copper, gold, silver and uranium mine from underground to pit operations.


Work would start as early as April 2010 on the multi-billion-dollar upgrade.


Under BHP Billiton's best-case scenario, excavation of the 1km-deep mine pit, and possibly construction of a pipeline to supply a gas power plant, would be under way by July next year.

By that time, a mini-city known as Hiltaba Village would be rising in the desert to house the thousands of workers needed for the project. This would be in addition to the expansion of the existing township of Roxby Downs.

The mine's workforce would double from 4000 to 8000 when it reached full capacity, with 2500 additional houses to be built for permanent workers. The operation representing the world's biggest single producer of uranium and one of the biggest of copper.

The open cut envisaged by BHP Billiton at Olympic Dam would become the biggest man-made hole on the planet and yield $1 trillion worth of ore over its century-long life, more than $200 million per annum of which would be paid in royalties to the South Australian Government. Production would lift six-fold from 12 million tonnes of ore annually to 72 million tonnes after 2020.

"We will work with BHP Billiton to maximise the number of jobs here in South Australia" The South Australian Premiere, Mike Rann said.

South Australian Mineral Resources Development Minister Paul Holloway yesterday said the Government was not blinded by the wealth on offer at Olympic Dam.

"If there are issues we do not believe have been addressed properly, then we will ask BHP to reconsider them and make appropriate amendments," Mr Holloway said.

If you are looking for a well performing residential or commercial investment property, an addition to your existing property portfolio or a home to live in, We guarantee to save you money on your next real estate purchase. Go to http://www.directnegotiations.com.au/ or call the team on +61(0)8 84631997