Just keeping it real

Capital City Performance
Annual change in dwelling value – year ending August 2008

The national end of month property indices report released
today by RP Data & Rismark International confirms that the
supply and demand imbalance currently being experienced in
the Australian property market has placed a floor under housing
prices, resulting in minimal value falls.
Based on the analysis in the report, this is most evident in the
metropolitan areas around the country where record
national dwelling values remaining positive over the 12 months ending August 2008. Over the three months to August 2008
there was a modest overall national decline with property values down by just 0.96 per cent over this period.
population growth has not been accompanied by new dwellings
to satisfy the housing demand.
According to RP Data National Research Director Tim Lawless
the property market has proven to be remarkably resilient with
Mr Lawless said the recent figures should put to rest claims that Australia’s property market is headed for a crash.
“In fact, values are holding relatively firm particularly when compared to the benchmark equities S&P/ASX 200 Index which
dropped by 19 per cent between January and August,” he said.
The only capital city to record a material decline in property values was Perth where this market fell by 5.69 per cent over the
August 2008 period. While this fall in values has caused some distress for home owners, Mr Lawless reminds owners that the
results need to be placed into context where values increased by 13.9 per cent annually over the past five years.
One of the most interesting findings in the indices release today was the convergence of the capital city market dynamics over
the past six months which revealed that all capital cities recorded slightly negative growth; no particular city was significantly out
of step with the others.
According to Rismark International’s Dr Mathew Hardman “Clearly, the observable phenomenon of the two‐tiered markets in
Sydney and then in Melbourne and to a lesser extent in Brisbane and Perth has disappeared ”
Sydney and then in Melbourne, and to a lesser extent in Brisbane and Perth, has disappeared.
“Market movements are now similar across all metro areas rather than value falls being isolated within the mortgage belts. This
balancing can be attributed to the squeeze the more affluent markets are experiencing due to the turbulence in the financial and
equities sector.
“Looking towards the next six months, strong excess demand in most capital cities is creating a floor under property values,
making large falls unlikely,” Dr Hardman said.
According to RP Data, with population growth projected to remain high and interest rates falling, the demand/supply imbalance
is expected to protect the market from any major falls in property values.
Rismark International’s Dr Hardman believes that unemployment is not a major factor driving property prices; affordability,
excess demand and market momentum are far more significant he said.
“Although unemployment is rising, unless it grows rapidly to significantly greater levels, eg 6 or 7 per cent over the next couple
of years, excess demand will eventually outweigh affordability constraints and begin to push property markets upwards again,
probably by the second half of 2009.”
“Over the long term, home unit values tend to track GDP growth, while house prices exceed it by approximately 2 per cent. In
Sydney, house and unit values relative to GDP have returned to their pre 2000 levels so affordability is slowly returning to the
Sydney market,” Dr Hardman


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